Gale Warning 713, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT EVEN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS FINALLY SLOWING
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING A SECONDARY
LOW IN THE GULF BY TUE WHICH BRINGS IT MORE INTO LINE WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST..PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION. WIDE VARIATIONS IN
TEMPS EXIST WITH A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PORTAGE AND
WHITTIER. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN TODAY AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE LOW CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS IS BEGINNING TO BRING UP SOME PRECIP
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY INTO SOUTHWEST AK BY SUN EVENING AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE JET STAYS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MID WEEK BUT A PERSISTENT PIECE OF IT WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHWEST AK THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN STORY
IS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING GALES AND
RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EAST TO THE AK PENN TODAY.
THE PRECIP WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO BRISTOL BAY WITH STRONG GAP WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE AND AK PENN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW SPREAD OUT
THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE IN THE GULF. HOWEVER EXPECT GALES AND
STORMS IN THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW IN THE BERING SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH LOW STRATUS FROM THE PRIBILOFS WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 130 138.
         GALES 125 132 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW NOV 08