Small Craft Advisory 863, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MUCH HAPPIER WITH THE MODELS TODAY AS COMPARED
WITH ANY OTHER DAY THIS WEEK. THE ONE THING THEY WERE DOING WELL EVEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS WAS KEEPING THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT. THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATER THIS WEEK HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT AND THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO COME IN LINE WITH WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN WITH THIS
PATTERN...LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN IS GREATLY INCREASED THERE ARE
SOME SHORTER TERM DETAILS TO LOOK AT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING ON
SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR SEWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AND THE
MODELS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW ALL THIS WILL FIT TOGETHER.
HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY
AND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS SITUATION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ON
THIS AFTERNOONS MAP IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS RIDGE
THAT IS DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DIGGING LOW AND STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY WHEN A PORTION OF IT MAY BE ABLE TO REACH
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH PATCHY FOG. IT IS VERY MUCH A WHAT
YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THIS PATTERN AND THE RETROGRESSION OF IT INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP STRONG LOWS OUT OF THE BERING
SEA AREA. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MODERATE LOWS
TO BEING TO GO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OR EVEN INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT LOWS WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN
THROUGH THE GULF AREA ONE AFTER ANOTHER IF THIS PATTERN DOES IN FACT
HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ NOV 08