Gale Warning 678, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 070008
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 58N 142W THIS EVENING MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE
SUCKLING AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W TO NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS E. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 6 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 13 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
E. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 071243
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 60N 149W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE BY SAT MORNING. A 992 MB LOW NEAR 46N 178W WILL INTENSIFY
TO 981 MB AS IT MOVES TO 50N 164W BY SAT NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL EXTEND IN AN ARC TO 56N 162W THEN SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO 50N 153W BY
SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ351-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-080300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 7 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MUCH HAPPIER WITH THE MODELS TODAY AS COMPARED
WITH ANY OTHER DAY THIS WEEK. THE ONE THING THEY WERE DOING WELL EVEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS WAS KEEPING THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CONSISTENT. THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATER THIS WEEK HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT AND THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO COME IN LINE WITH WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN WITH THIS
PATTERN...LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN IS GREATLY INCREASED THERE ARE
SOME SHORTER TERM DETAILS TO LOOK AT. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS WITH A LOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING ON
SHORE NEAR YAKUTAT THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR SEWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AND THE
MODELS ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW ALL THIS WILL FIT TOGETHER.
HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY
AND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS SITUATION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE ON
THIS AFTERNOONS MAP IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS RIDGE
THAT IS DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE DIGGING LOW AND STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY WHEN A PORTION OF IT MAY BE ABLE TO REACH
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITH PATCHY FOG. IT IS VERY MUCH A WHAT
YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THIS PATTERN AND THE RETROGRESSION OF IT INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP STRONG LOWS OUT OF THE BERING
SEA AREA. BY LATE IN THE WEEK THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MODERATE LOWS
TO BEING TO GO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OR EVEN INTO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT LOWS WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN
THROUGH THE GULF AREA ONE AFTER ANOTHER IF THIS PATTERN DOES IN FACT
HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ NOV 08