Small Craft Advisory 862, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 051454 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
555 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

UPDATED ZONE 150 155 172 175

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH THU. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA EARLY WED 
AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
555 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
555 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR THE WESTERN CAPES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
555 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
555 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 060018
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA
THROUGH FRI. A 993 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 400 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK AT 998 MB THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-061500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-061500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-061500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-061500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-061500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-061500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-061500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-061500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
  

$$

PKZ179-061500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 5 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2008

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO FINE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS BUT THERE ARE STILL MODEL PROBLEMS GOING ON IN THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ISSUES BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW BY
THURSDAY WITH A LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE ALSO SHOWING A
SIMILAR SOLUTION...BUT NOT WHAT THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING. AFTER
ANALYZING THE SITUATION THE BEST FIT SEEMS TO BLEND THE NAM AND GFS
WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT WITH THE GFS. THIS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH DOES SEEM LIKELY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LOW COULD STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS BUT THE CONFIDENCE FOR FORECASTING THAT IS LACKING AT
THIS TIME. THE WESTERN DOMAIN IS IN BETTER SHAPE WITH THE MODELS AS
THE RIDGE IN EASTERN RUSSIA CONTINUES TO EXTEND THROUGH THE BERING
SEA. THIS IS KEEPING THE PROBLEMS WITH RESOLVING A LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ANOTHER ONE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN
NORTHEAST OF THE ALASKA COAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEK
EXCEPT TO RETROGRADE A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THE JET STREAM IS AND WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP STRONG SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DOES A NICE JOB OF
SHOWING THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF. IT IS LIKELY GOING TO PUSH SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE VERY
SIGNIFICANT.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALSO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT LOWS FORECAST TO GO THROUGH
THE AREA.
IN THE EAST WEATHER WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CHANGE BUT HAS A CHANCE TO
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LOW IN
THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08