Small Craft Advisory 861, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2008

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DO FINE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS BUT THERE ARE STILL MODEL PROBLEMS GOING ON IN THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. ISSUES BEGIN TO REALLY SHOW BY
THURSDAY WITH A LOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF. THE GFS AND UKMET
ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE ALSO SHOWING A
SIMILAR SOLUTION...BUT NOT WHAT THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SHOWING. AFTER
ANALYZING THE SITUATION THE BEST FIT SEEMS TO BLEND THE NAM AND GFS
WITH A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT WITH THE GFS. THIS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TO FORM ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH DOES SEEM LIKELY. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS LOW COULD STRENGTHEN MORE AND PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS BUT THE CONFIDENCE FOR FORECASTING THAT IS LACKING AT
THIS TIME. THE WESTERN DOMAIN IS IN BETTER SHAPE WITH THE MODELS AS
THE RIDGE IN EASTERN RUSSIA CONTINUES TO EXTEND THROUGH THE BERING
SEA. THIS IS KEEPING THE PROBLEMS WITH RESOLVING A LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND ANOTHER ONE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN
NORTHEAST OF THE ALASKA COAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEK
EXCEPT TO RETROGRADE A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THE JET STREAM IS AND WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP STRONG SYSTEMS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DOES A NICE JOB OF
SHOWING THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF. IT IS LIKELY GOING TO PUSH SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE VERY
SIGNIFICANT.
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ALSO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN DOES NOT
CHANGE MUCH AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT LOWS FORECAST TO GO THROUGH
THE AREA.
IN THE EAST WEATHER WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CHANGE BUT HAS A CHANCE TO
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LOW IN
THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08