Small Craft Advisory 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
520 AM AST SAT JAN 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SOLUTIONS DOING WELL IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MILD
DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT WHEN A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS OFF OF THE
WESTERN BERING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE
THIS WILL OCCUR AT FIRST...THE EUROPEAN MODELS WANT TO PUSH IT
FARTHER EAST NEAR KODIAK AND THE GFS AND NAM WANT TO HOLD IT BACK
OVER BRISTOL BAY. AFTER THIS DISAGREEMENT ALL MODELS HAVE THE LOW
WEAKEN IN THE GULF. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE TO FORM FIRST IN
BRISTOL BAY DUE TO AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PATTERN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SUPPORTED THE GULF LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW
TO SOUTHCENTRAL YESTERDAY...INCLUDING A DAILY RECORD AMOUNT AT THE
ANCHORAGE AIRPORT...HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. MOST OF
THE MAINLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS
MORNING DUE TO THIS RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH. A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BETWEEN THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS PUSHING ITS STRONG WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...EAST ACROSS THE CHAIN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE GULF LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN TODAY THEN START
WEAKENING TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
TODAY INCLUDING THE WARNING LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND
COPPER RIVER DELTA. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS
WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AS THE RIDGE IS RIGHT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER
KODIAK ISLAND WILL SEE EFFECTS OF THE WESTERN BERING FRONT AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING RAISING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
AND BRINGING MAINLY SNOW AND GUSTY EAST WINDS. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

WESTERN MAINLAND AND ALASKA PENINSULA...CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD OF THE FRONT
SPREADS EAST. AS THE FRONT NEARS...COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE AND SNOW BEGINNING TO REACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND THE WESTERN CAPES
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER
THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY.

BERING/ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS...RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY. WILL SEE COLDER AIR
LATER TODAY WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW TO RETURN PRECIPITATION TO SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THEN EAST ALONG THE CHAIN TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO HANG AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
OLD FRONT WEAKENS. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRAVEL NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF BY MID WEEK...HOWEVER WEAK RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND
WILL KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OR SOME ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT ONE BUT WILL NOT BE AS WARM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 131 155
         HIGH WIND 135
MARINE...GALE 120 121 129 130 132 160 170 172 175 176 179 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140 141 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR JAN 08