Small Craft Advisory 58, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN STAY IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW
MOVING TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. CURRENTLY PREFER THE GFS MODEL
SINCE IT HAS A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IT APPEARS THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEMS HAVE SLOWED A BIT FROM WHAT
WAS PROGGED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS STILL
DRIFTING EAST WITH THE 300 MB JET OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

AT THE SURFACE, THE OLD LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SATURDAY HAS
MOVED NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND THE GULF...
BOTH THE 300 MB WIND MAX AND THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND AND ENTER THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVENING THEN
MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE BOTH
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL MIRROR THE UPPER FEATURES BY MOVING INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING THEN WILL
WEAKEN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT.
WE STILL LOOKING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY BASED
ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FLOWING UP THE FRONT AND THE DURATION STAYS
OVER THE AREA. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING BUT WILL
PICK UP A LITTLE RAIN AND SNOW EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO PRICE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION THEN WILL BECOME
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
WESTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY AND RAPIDLY MOVE EAST TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. A SHORTER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION AND
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA, ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
THE OLD WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN DOMAIN THIS
EVENING ENDING THE RAIN AND SNOW OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF KUSKOKWIM
BAY WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE NEAR CAPE
ROMANZOF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
DELTA COAST THIS EVENING.

THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TURN
NORTH AND MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
NORTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE
STORM CENTER INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING THEN PUSH INTO
THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN 400 MILES OF THE CENTER THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST
INTO WESTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH THE TROUGH. WEATHER WILL IMPROVE
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALASKA THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 101 TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE HIGHER
         ELEVATIONS.
         HEAVY SNOW WARNING ZONE 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 125 130 132 138 150 160 165 170 171
                      172 179 180 185.
         STORM WARNING 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM JAN 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1043 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GLEN ALPS               61.10N 149.69W
01/20/2008  M87 MPH                             AK   MESONET

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GLEN ALPS               61.10N 149.69W
01/20/2008  M87 MPH                             AK   MESONET

            THE GLEN ALPS HANDAR REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 87 MPH AT
            700 PM AST SUNDAY JANUARY 20 2008. THE WINDS FREQUENTLY
            GUSTED ABOVE 73 MPH BETWEEN 400 AM AND 800 PM SUNDAY
            JANUARY 20.

&&

DANG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1247 AM AST MON JAN 21 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HEAVY SNOW       PETERS CREEK            61.41N 149.43W
01/21/2008  M14.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THE PETERSVILLE AREA IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY RECEIVED 14
            INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN NOON AND 1030 PM ON SUNDAY JANUARY
            20 2008.

1230 AM     HEAVY SNOW       MOUNT SUSITNA           61.47N 150.73W
01/21/2008  M14.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOUNT SUSITNA IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY RECEIVED 14 INCHES OF
            SNOW BETWEEN NOON AND 1000 PM ON SUNDAY JANUARY 20 2008.

&&

DANG