Gale Warning 25, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 221230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUE EVENING. A 1013 MB
LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N
146W WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE NEAR 59N 141W WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ351-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 222359
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 55N 162W WILL MOVE TO 59N 142W AT 1010 MB WED
AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WED AND
PERSIST THROUGH THU. 

$$

PKZ351-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231249
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 61N 148W WILL MOVE TO 58N 140W AT 1009 MB
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A 993 MB LOW WILL FORM
NEAR 59N 151W THURSDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240006
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 59N 150W THU NIGHT WILL 
MOVE TO 59N 140W AT 980 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240021 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

CORRECTED FIRST PERIOD SEAS

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 59N 150W THU NIGHT WILL 
MOVE TO 59N 140W AT 980 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST WED JAN 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 241254
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY
THEN EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT. A 997 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 58N 151W THU
NIGHT THEN BECOME A 984 MB LOW NEAR 57N 137W BY SAT MORNING. 
$$

PKZ351-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 08 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AST THU JAN 24 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE BERING
SEA PAST 74 HOURS BUT THAT IS NOT UNUSUAL. THE LARGER ISSUE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE NEAR TERM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS A
WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS NOT ON THE GFS MODEL AT ALL. IT IS
ON THE NAM MODEL BUT THE NAM HAS IT MOVING NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FAR TO THE WEST. IN SHORT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FEATURE THAT
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT NONE OF THE
MODELS APPEAR TO HANDLE IT VERY WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG LOW MOVING OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS ON TRACK AND SHOULD MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND OVERNIGHT
AND THEN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AFTER THAT. THIS LOW IS QUITE WARM
AND IS BRINGING RAIN AHEAD OF IT AND WITH IT. THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS RATHER SHARP BEHIND THIS LOW AND AREAS WEST OF IT WILL BE
IN SNOW.
IN THE EAST THE BIG QUESTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SINCE THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THERE ARE NOT SHOWING A
STRONG RESPONSE TO IT. HOWEVER IT IS IN A DATA SPARSE AREA AND RADAR
SHOWS A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH IT. THE SUSPICION IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A BIG
INFLUENCE ON SURFACE GRADIENT BECAUSE OF IT BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LOTS OF PROBLEM AREAS OUT WEST WITH THIS LOW.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS GETTING CLOSE TO WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS THE
FRONT IS RIGHT ON THEM AND SO ARE THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WILL GET INTO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLIZZARD WARNING...AND RIGHT NOT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT. THINKING IS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING OUT AS THE WIND INCREASES AND THERE WILL ONLY BE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY.
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA IS ALSO A BLIZZARD CANDIDATE FOR TOMORROW. IT
WILL BE WARM AND RAINY TONIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW AS THE
TEMPERATURE RAPIDLY DROPS. EASTERN AREA OF ZONE 155 MAY ALSO STRUGGLE
WITH THIS AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
BE BREEZY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE EAST THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH WIND AND HOW MUCH
MELTING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. CURRENTLY FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN FOR A CHINOOK WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW
OUT WEST AND THE TRACK IT IS TAKING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND. IN ANCHORAGE
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COME OVER THE CITY AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THERE IS A WRENCH IN THE
WORKS IN THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE IN THE GULF. IF IT DOES
HAVE A STRONGER EFFECT AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BAG OUT THE PRESSURE
FIELD AND GREATLY DIMINISH WINDS FROM WHAT ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THIS REMAINS MORE OF A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN A LIKELY SCENARIO.
SUMMED UP...IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL BE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
WIND UP COOK INLET THAN A CHINOOK EVENT WITH ADIABATIC WARMING OFF TE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT A GOOD BIT OF THE AREA...BUT
BEWARE OF FOG AND STRATUS AS THERE IS A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
LEFT BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
A LARGE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 171 172 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 155 160 165 170 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08