Small Craft Advisory 56, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
630 PM AST SAT JAN 19 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS
HAVE SLOWED THE NEXT STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST BERING SEA OTHERWISE
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND MONDAY AFTERNOON
THE MODELS HAVE WIDELY DIVERGE SOLUTION FOR NEXT STORM APPROACHING
THE ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. THE
300 MB JET ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE STATE STILL APPEARS TO BE CONTROLLING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA IS STILL MOVING NORTH WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM
DELTA COAST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL AIR
MOVING NORTH ALONG IT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS DRIFTING
EAST WITH THE UPPER RIDGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. RAIN OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD INTO THE LOWER COOK INLET AND
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD UP THE NORTHERN COOK INLET AND
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF THE VALLEY
SUNDAY. SINCE IT APPEARS THAT A LOT OF MOISTURE IS FLOWING UP THE
FRONT, SNOWFALL OVER THE VALLEY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INCREASES. WINDS SPEED COULD REACH WARNING
LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL CREATE DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS OVER THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTHWEST KENAI PENINSULA THAT
LITTLE RAIN OF SNOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT IS ALONG ON TOPS OF
THESE AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE WEAKEN AND NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WILL FED INTO THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WITH JUST A LITTLE SLOPPING
OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND AND WEAKEN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING OVER NIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST. RAIN WITH BECOME SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COOLING TEMPERATURES.
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL MORE RAIN AND
SNOW AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST MONDAY.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN MONDAY. STRONG WEST WINDS OVER
THE BERING WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM OVER THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MORE GALE FORCE TO POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST BERING MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NW ALASKA
TUESDAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BERING SEA BEHIND IT.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
GULF AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE COOLER
TEMPS INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 101 TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 172 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 08