Gale Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 210647 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

UPDATED ZONE 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 180

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL WEAKEN TO 978 MB 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR
HOOPER BAY MON NIGHT. A 1005 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 989 MB 450 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 1012 MB AS IT MOVES EAST TO 150 EAST OF COLD BAY
TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO S 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 20 KT NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
945 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. AREAS OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN JAN 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL RUNS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTER ABOUT 84 HOURS THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
DRASTICALLY.  GFS AND NAM HAVE SIMILAR POSITIONS ON THE LOW MOVING
INTO THE BERING BUT GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...WHILE LATER THE
ECMWF SOLUTION BEGINS TO MIRROR THE GFS BUT DOES NOT PICK UP THE
SECONDARY LOWS.  ALTHOUGH THE GFS WAS CHOSEN AS THE MOST LIKELY
SOLUTION THE SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD HAS BEEN HIGHLY
VARIABLE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS.  THE STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FLOWING ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  THIS IS
BRINGING AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE MAINLAND AND STRONG
SURFACE WINDS ARE A PERSISTENT PROBLEM IN MANY OF THE ZONES.  A
COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO WARM
THE AIR COLUMN AND TEMPERATURES ARE UNSEASONABLY WARM PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED WEST OF THE
ALASKA RANGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BUT SLOWLY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...THE FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AS IT DOES SO.  MEANWHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN TODAY...THESE TWO FACTORS
COMBINED ARE CAUSING WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM THIS
MORNING AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DOWNSLOPING ARE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM
REACHING THE KENAI PENINSULA AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL IN THE SUSITNA
VALLEY THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE.  OVER RUNNING AND THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY TODAY.  AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD IT
WILL BRING A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF SNOW TO VALDEZ AS WELL BUT THE WARM
AIR WILL BRING RAIN EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS THE JET AND THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD.  ALTHOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING THEY
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON THERE AS WELL.  THE REGION WILL HAVE A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE
NEXT LOW IS ALREADY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.  THE ALEUTIANS WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME WITH THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND.  AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
UP TOWARD THE ARCTIC HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
SLIGHTLY AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ALOFT.  THIS POSITIONS A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND BRINGS COLD AIR AGAIN TO THE MAINLAND...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SNOW EVENT SETTING UP FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS NOT HIGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101
         SNOW ADVISORY 145
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 138 140 141 150 160 165
               171 172 179 180 185
         STORM 155 170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF JAN 08