Small Craft Advisory 520, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON JUN 30 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BOTH DOMAINS BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN DOMAIN STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. THE
OPERATIONAL EC/UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LATEST NAM ALL
BEGIN TO PULL A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH CAPE SARICHEF TOWARDS
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH VARYING INTENSITIES. THE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE
LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LATEST RUN AT 06Z HAS BEGUN TO ALIGN WITH THE
OTHER MODEL RESOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND HAS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT NORTH. A
WEAKENING LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING
FROM EAST OF ATTU SOUTHEAST ACROSS NIKOLSKI WHILE A DEEPENING NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE PARENT LOW
MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY
WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO
RELAX AND WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND PARTS OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST...
PATCHY FOG WILL HANG AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST
AND INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY
OUT OF THE AREA.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS
ALONG A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CHAIN
AND INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS A SECOND SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA
SOUTH OF ADAK. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE DEEPENING LOW WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN IN THE WESTERN DOMAIN AS
EARLIER MODEL CONFIDENCE WAS STILL LOW. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE
FOR DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD. SKIES WILL BECOME LESS CLOUDY AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND EAST ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AFTER WEDNESDAY AS A
SERIES OF LOWS MOVE INTO THE GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...GALE 150 155 160 165 170 172 414
FIRE WEATHER...

SHEA JUN 08