Gale Warning 489, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 012310
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A STRONG FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT. A 991 MB LOW 150 NM NW OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL WEAKEN TO 995 
MB AS IT DRIFTS TO 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST PAUL THURSDAY MORNING. A
990 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY
THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ150-021400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-021400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-021400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-021400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-021400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS
10 FT EXCEPT 5 FT NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-021400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-021400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-021400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS DOMINATE THE
WX PICTURE THIS MORNING. BOTH LOWS ARE DECAYING AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY
NE...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE OTHER OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE IN-BETWEEN THESE LOWS WILL HOLD FIRM OVER
THE GULF THROUGH WED.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION WITH BIGGER DISCREPANCIES SHOWING UP LATE IN THE WEEK IN
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A DOMINATE LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND MOVES EAST OVER
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS DUE PRIMARILY DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW AND SURFACE HEATING AS SKIES START OUT RELATIVELY CLEAR. LIGHT
DIURNAL SEA BREEZES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH.

FURTHER WEST...THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AKPENN.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND PLENTY OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS
FRONT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS SOUTH TO A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG 50N BEGINNING
LATE WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE NEXT LOW FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR MUCH OF ALASKAS WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH
THE MAIN EFFECTS BEING FELT MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER
INLAND...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 160 165 170 172 180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA