Small Craft Advisory 503, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE (BY SUMMER STANDARDS) OUT IN THE ALEUTIANS IS
BY FAR THE LARGEST FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW ENCOMPASSING THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA.
THE LOW IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TO JUST SOUTH OF KING COVE LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SURROUND THE
LOW AND BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO MOVE EAST FROM THE LOW INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DOING VERY WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE FRONT TO MOVE
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE ARE STILL SOME
STRENGTH AND SLIGHT PATH DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE LOW AS IT GETS TO
THE UNIMAK ISLAND/KING COVE AREA LATER TONIGHT. FAVORING THE 12Z NAM
SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF
CHAIN AND STRONGER...VS THE GFS WHICH TAKES THE LOW TO JUST NORTH OF
THE CHAIN AND HAS THE LOW WEAKER. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/UNIMAK ISLAND AREA
SENDS A WEATHER FRONT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY STALL
OUT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE
GULF...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO EAST WINDS IN THE USUAL
CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW
KEEPING MOST INLAND AREAS DRY BUT CLOUDY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THE STRONG LOW IN THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/UNIMAK ISLAND AREA IS
ALREADY SENDING LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. OTHER THAN A LITTLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND...THE BRUNT OF THE
RAIN WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT BECAUSE OF
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. GUSTY WINDS ARE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...AND WILL BE PUTTING OUT A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR THAT ZONE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI AS OF THIS WRITING MOVES
TO JUST SOUTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND STALLS OUT THERE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
AREA AND WEAKENS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SURROUND THIS LOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME TROUBLE IN THE LONG TERM. LOOKS LIKE A LOW
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 138 150 160 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY JUN 08