Gale Warning 480, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 252329
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 988 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 998
MB BY LATE THU AND THEN MOVE TO A 1006 MB LOW 360 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD
BY LATE FRI. 

$$

PKZ120-261400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH EASTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-261400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-261400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-261400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-261400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-261400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-261400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-261400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-261400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 
5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN. USED A BLEND
TOWARD THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT DECIDED ON THE ECMWF FOR THE MID
TO LONG RANGE AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE LONG RANGE LOW NEAR THE GULF
BETTER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AS
IT DOES SO ITS ASSOCIATED LOW IS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF. THIS IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SUSITNA
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND WRAPS BACK AROUND
WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. IT IS BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE
WINDS AS IT GOES.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE WITH
INTERMITTENT AREAS OF FOG. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS FAR TO THE NORTH
LIMITING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING ENHANCING LIFT FROM THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER VALLEY TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF MCGRATH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
FOR MUCH OF THE GULF...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO EAST WINDS
IN THE USUAL CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL. RAINFALL WITH
THE FRONT  WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING MOST INLAND AREAS DRY BUT CLOUDY. ISOLATED
THUNDER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. GUSTY WINDS ARE A
CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...AND WILL BE KEEPING A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THAT ZONE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING...GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SURROUND THIS
LOW AND GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. BY THU EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
BERING BRINGING MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK AND NORTH OF THE AK RANGE WILL BRING
MORE INSTABILITY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 160 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW JUN 08