Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A LOW HEADED TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM
THE SOUTH. THE BEST SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY IN THE MID 980S MB AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES UP THE COAST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SATURDAY. THIS IS ARRIVED
AT IN PART DUE TO THE MODELS EDGING THE LOW WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE
ALONG WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA COAST LOOKS TO BE
INCREASING IN STRENGTH.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA THE KENAI PENINSULA IS KEEPING CONVECTION DOWN AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE.
THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION IS STILL LIKELY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
SUCH AS THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN AND WIND WILL PERSIST OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW IN THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MUCH OF IT HINGES ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION SECTION. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW TRACK THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BRING RAIN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OR THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MAY
DIMINISH PRECIPITATION WHILE INCREASING WINDS. THIS LOW WILL
INFLUENCE JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND BEARS WATCHING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 08