Gale Warning 415, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 221147
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT IN THE GULF TODAY. A 982 MB LOW MOVING 
NORTH ACROSS UNIMAK ISLAND FRI MORNING SENDS A STRONG WEATHER
FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND FRI.
$$

PKZ351-230200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SOUTH 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-230200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 222239
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
THE 987 MB LOW AT 49N 163W WILL INTENSIFY TO 980 MB TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN TO 986 MB AT 56N 168W FRI. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GULF
FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR FALSE PASS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA TODAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES
THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF ON
SAT.
$$

PKZ351-240200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240047 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL BECOME A 996 MB LOW
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 1008 MB
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT AND SUN.
$$

PKZ351-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED MAY 21 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THIS MORNING...A VERY DEEP SEMI-CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE BERING SEA SOUTH TO AROUND 25N LATITUDE WITH A STRONG JET
STREAM ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE IS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR DRIFTING AROUND AND WEAKENING
SINCE IT LACKS UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH.
A WEAK...DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF. A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
EAST TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS FORMING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY
AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH THE UPCOMING MAJOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON BOTH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE
LOW...AND MINOR DISAGREEMENTS ON ITS STRENGTH. WE ARE FAVORING THE
SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF THE 0Z MODEL SUITE...WHICH TAKES THE
LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA NEAR KING COVE FRIDAY MORNING AND
MOVES IT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING BETWEEN THE PRIBILOFS AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OZ GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN ITS
FAR EAST/FAST TRACK AND OUR FORECAST GENERALLY GOES AWAY FROM ITS
SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY
ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARM AGAIN AWAY FROM THE
WATER...WITH A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. A FRONT OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
NORTH...PERHAPS EVEN DIEING OUT EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP KODIAK DRY
TODAY. OF IMPORTANCE...MARINE STRATUS IS FILLING IN OVER THE GULF
VERY FAST WITH MIDDLETON ISLAND AND CORDOVA ALREADY AFFECTED...AND
THE MARINE STRATUS SHOULD STICK AROUND IN THESE AREAS.

THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GULF...LEADING TO SOMEWHAT LESS CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALONG WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF GIVES WAY TO A STRONG WEATHER FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE
USUAL COASTAL UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH FROM
BETHEL TO MCGRATH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THURSDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
NORTH AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A MORE MARITIME AIRMASS. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH TO KING COVE FRIDAY
MORNING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BERING/ALEUTIAN/AKPEN REGION. A WEAK SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NEAR
DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SOME SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS EASTWARD. THIS LOW
DRIFTS AROUND JUST NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR THROUGH TOMORROW THEN
DISSIPATES AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH TOWARD THE AKPEN.
THIS LOW CROSSES THE AKPEN NEAR KING COVE FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD GALES AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THANKS TO ITS STRONG DYNAMICS AND TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE THE STRONG LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING MOVES NORTH AND CLEARS THE
REGION AROUND SUNDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP WITH ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SOMEWHERE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OR NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 08