Small Craft Advisory 421, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 130054 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

CORRECTED AREA 185

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN WILL WEAKEN TO 978 MB AS IT MOVES TO
100 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL MON NIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TO 985 MB AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEGUAM ISLAND WED. 
$$

PKZ150-131400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-131400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-131400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-131400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-131400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-131400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-131400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 131130
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-140200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 977 MB LOW 175 NM NORTH OF ADAK WEAKENS TO 988 MB 175 NM SOUTHEAST
OF ATKA WED NIGHT. A STRONG 968 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW STRENGTHENS TO
958 MB 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WED MORNING.  THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO 981 MB 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-140200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-140200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-140200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-140200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-140200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-140200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-140200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-140200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-140200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-140200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-140200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-140200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 13 2008

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
505 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ALLOWING FOR ONLY MINOR EDITS TO
INHERITED FORECAST. GFS WAS USED AS THE OVERALL SOLUTION AGAIN FOR
ITS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND INTO WESTERN
ALASKA WITH A CLOSED STACKED LOW OVER THE AK PENN. UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IS NEARING THE NORTH GULF COAST
FROM THE AK PENN LOW. THE FRONT IS PUSHING AGAINST THE SURFACE
REFLECTED WEST COAST RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND VERY STRONG WINDS OVER LAND INCLUDING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. THE FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AK AS THE MOISTURE IS WRUNG OUT FROM THE ALASKA RANGE AND
OVER THE BERING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CLOUD COVER WILL STRETCH ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO DECREASE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONES
AS THE RIDGING TRIES TO HOLD ON THE THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS
WILL THEN STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PASSES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BAND
TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

SW MAINLAND...STRONG GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN WEAKEN
TUESDAY AS THE AK PENN LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE WEST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO STAY AROUND UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY AS FLOW TURNS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH.

BERING AND ALEUTIANS...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 125
MARINE...STORM 120
      ...GALE 125 130 132 138 140 155 170 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR MAY 08