Gale Warning 440, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 130338 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

UPDATED AREA 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN WILL WEAKEN TO 978 MB AS IT MOVES TO
100 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL MON NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
INTENSIFY TO 960 MB AS IT MOVES 180 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WED. 
$$

PKZ120-131400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
740 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-131400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-131400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-131400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-131400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-131400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-131400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-131400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-131400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
505 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ALLOWING FOR ONLY MINOR EDITS TO
INHERITED FORECAST. GFS WAS USED AS THE OVERALL SOLUTION AGAIN FOR
ITS GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AND INTO WESTERN
ALASKA WITH A CLOSED STACKED LOW OVER THE AK PENN. UPPER RIDGE TRIES
TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IS NEARING THE NORTH GULF COAST
FROM THE AK PENN LOW. THE FRONT IS PUSHING AGAINST THE SURFACE
REFLECTED WEST COAST RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND VERY STRONG WINDS OVER LAND INCLUDING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. THE FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTHCENTRAL DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AK AS THE MOISTURE IS WRUNG OUT FROM THE ALASKA RANGE AND
OVER THE BERING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CLOUD COVER WILL STRETCH ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TO DECREASE THE PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL ZONES
AS THE RIDGING TRIES TO HOLD ON THE THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN
UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. SHOWERS
WILL THEN STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
PASSES OVERHEAD. THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BAND
TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND AND RAIN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL.

SW MAINLAND...STRONG GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN WEAKEN
TUESDAY AS THE AK PENN LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE WEST. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO STAY AROUND UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR BRISTOL BAY AS FLOW TURNS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH.

BERING AND ALEUTIANS...SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 125
MARINE...STORM 120
      ...GALE 125 130 132 138 140 155 170 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR MAY 08