Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 14 2008

CORRECTED WARNING SUMMARY

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF LOW CENTER AS STRONG SWLY JET SETS UP OVER THE MAINLAND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL NUDGE CURRENT GRIDS TOWARD NEW GFS
SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/MAINLAND ALASKA BUILDS
AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA TUE NIGHT. THE LOW CENTER NEAR THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTH AND MERGES WITH THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
RUSSIA TUE NIGHT. GENERAL POSITION OF TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA/EASTERN RUSSIA UNDERGOES SOME CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT GENERAL TREND IS TO KEEP STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE NPAC TO
AND THE MAINLAND/GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

.FORECAST...
.EAST...WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY. SHORT TERM WILL BE MAIN FOCUS
THIS PACKAGE. WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS SW ALASKA/WESTERN GULF THIS
MORNING WILL SPREAD LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM NEAR THE ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS LIKELY TONIGHT. THIS LOW CENTER MOVES TO TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE MORNING THEN INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF
TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NORTH GULF AND
COASTAL LOCALS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
TONIGHT. ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SNOW
AS FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TONIGHT. BLOWING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER ZONES 135 AND CHANNELED AREAS OF ZONE 125 LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT AS FRONT MOVES INLAND TUE THAT BLIZZARD
THREAT SHOULD END. FAIR LOW AND MID LEVEL SW FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. EXPECT MAY SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR ZONES 145 AND 131. LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER THE GULF SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...THAT
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE MIXED OR RAIN.

.WEST...WEATHER FRONT OVER SW ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPPER 960S MB LOW NEAR ADAK THIS AFTERNOON
BOTTOMS OUT IN THE LOWER 960S TONIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND TUE NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW CENTER FORMS SOUTH OF
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MOVES NEAR NORTON SOUND TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF
THIS LOW. TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT SHOULD
SUPPRESS BLOWING SNOW...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN CAPES. EXPECT GALES TO
STORMS WITH THE LOW CENTERS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 155 125 135.
MARINE...STORM 120 165 170.
         GALE 125 130 132 140 150 155 160 171 172 175 179 180 185.
         FREEZING SPRAY 120 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 08