Storm Warning 23, NWS Anchorage, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFC 160055
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 980 MB LOW 140 NM NORTHEAST OF ST PAUL WILL MOVE TO NORTON SOUND AT
990 MB TUE NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KISKA WILL MOVE TO 100
NM WEST OF ST PAUL AT 997 MB THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-161500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-161500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-161500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-161500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT.  
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT.  
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-161500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-161500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-161500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-161500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-161500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
630 AM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING. NAM INITIALIZED VERY
POORLY...PARTICULARLY OUT WEST WITH LOCATION OF THE LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE MAINLAND IS A 971 MB LOW SOUTHWEST OF
THE PRIBILOFS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE. A TRIPLE POINT LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THAT POINT.
SNOW IS FALLING OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AS SEEN IN PLACES LIKE KING SALMON AND KODIAK
ISLAND.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FLOWING OUT OF A WESTERN BERING SEA TROF
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ALONG THE 160 KT JET PROVIDING THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
HOVERING JUST BELOW FREEZING SO HAVE YET TO SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
REFLECTED IN THE PATO OBSERVATION BUT CONFIDENT THERE ARE AREAS
LIKELY SEEING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS.

SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS A RESULT OF
THE VERY FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE. EXPECTING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH 6 TO 14 STORM TOTAL
THROUGHOUT THE ZONE. VALDEZ IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING LIGHTER SNOW TOTALS AS EASTERLY WINDS INITIALLY
ARE DOWNSLOPING ANCHORAGE BUT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND WINDS
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT THE MID LEVELS...EXPECT TO SEE SNOW PICK UP A
BIT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE GULF THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST...
BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS MORNING. THE
ZONE IS CURRENTLY IN A BREAK BETWEEN THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER THIS MORNING THAT WILL BRING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
TWO WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.

SNOW ALSO SPREADING UP THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IN THIS AREA...HAVE OPTED TO
BUMP UP TOTALS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

CONCERN IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE DILLINGHAM WEST WHERE COLD AIR IS TRAPPED AT
THE SURFACE AND DRAINING FROM THE NORTH. WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...EVIDENCED BY KING SALMONS SOUNDING...INDICATIVE OF WARM
AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE ZONE BUT AM ANXIOUSLY AWAITING THE FIRST REPORTS
FROM DILLINGHAM TO VERIFY THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.

FURTHER WEST...MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BERING SEA AS LOWS SPIN UP AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. HAVE HEDGED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
NEW GFS BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS BEYOND THE
FIRST 48 HOURS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...125 155
          SNOW ADVISORY 145
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 140 185
         GALES...120 130 140 170 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 08