Small Craft Advisory 365, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE WEAK LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST. A
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING SNOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND THERE IS RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WHICH IS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A SNOW ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT FOR THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AND A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT NORTH OF TALKEETNA. OVER 13
INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT CHULITNA TODAY.
THE WARM SECTOR WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY. WATCH THE MOVEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF FOR TIMING OF THIS EVENT. LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANCHORAGE AND NEARBY AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE
EAST NEXT WEEK. THE DEPARTURE SPEED AND HOW THINGS DEVELOP BEHIND IT
ARE NOT REAL CLEAR. THE MODELS HANDLE THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN A
SIMILAR WAY BUT DISAGREE ON SMALLER (BUT IMPORTANT) LOCAL WEATHER
FEATURES. FEEL GOOD ABOUT A DRYING TREND NEXT WEAK AS UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK...EVEN THOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 145.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155.
         STORM 120.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08