Gale Warning 397, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 261137
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 984 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 320 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 979 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 986 MB BY LATE SUN NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-270200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT THIS MORNING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-270200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-270200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-270200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-270200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N TO NE WIND 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-270200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-270200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF
WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-270200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT THIS MORNING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-270200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SAT APR 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT FRI APR 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF AND THE WEAK LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST. A
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT IS BRINGING SNOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND THERE IS RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WHICH IS STILL
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A SNOW ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT FOR THE ANCHORAGE
AREA AND A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT NORTH OF TALKEETNA. OVER 13
INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN AT CHULITNA TODAY.
THE WARM SECTOR WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL FROM THE EAST
SATURDAY. WATCH THE MOVEMENT OF THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF FOR TIMING OF THIS EVENT. LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANCHORAGE AND NEARBY AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE
EAST NEXT WEEK. THE DEPARTURE SPEED AND HOW THINGS DEVELOP BEHIND IT
ARE NOT REAL CLEAR. THE MODELS HANDLE THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN A
SIMILAR WAY BUT DISAGREE ON SMALLER (BUT IMPORTANT) LOCAL WEATHER
FEATURES. FEEL GOOD ABOUT A DRYING TREND NEXT WEAK AS UPPER FLOW IS
WEAK...EVEN THOUGH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 145.
MARINE...GALE 125 130 132 138 140 141 150 155.
         STORM 120.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08