Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
120 PM AST THU JAN 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE. GFS STILL THE MOST
INTENSE..935 MB..WITH SUNDAYS WESTERN ALEUTIAN STORM..AND ASSOCIATED
75 KT SURFACE WINDS. OTHER MODEL RUNS ARE WEAKER BUT STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY. TRACK IS FARTHER WEST BY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES.

.VERY GENERAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 178E AND DOWNSTREAM COLD LOW MORE OR LESS CENTERED
IN THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY. 2 MAIN SHTWAVES ARE STILL AROUND. ONE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS B. BAY AND THE AK PEN AND ANOTHER STUCK OVER
SCNTRAL ALASKA. THIS ONE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
AFOGNAK ISLAND IN THE KODIAK ZONE. JUST FLURRIES COPPER RIVER BASIN.
TROF AXIS BARELY MOVES EAST NXT 30 HOURS WHICH WILL HOLD COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AK PEN..ERN ALUTNS AND AREAS TO THE NORTH.
SNOW THREAT CONTINUES..FROM JUST EAST OF THE WESTERN AK RANGE
EASTWARD..THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT..THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER TROF AXIS ROLLING TO 140W AS POWERFULL STORM
ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST BERING. INLAND CLEARING WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY THE MCGRATH ZONE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES IN THE ALEUTIANS.

*** JAN 08