Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST WED JAN 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...LOOK OK BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SUNDAY 943 MB
HURRICANE FORCE LOW THAT CROSSES ADAK AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING IS QUESTIONABLE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...NO CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING CENTERED OVER THE RUSSIAN
FAR EAST. DOWNSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW CENTER OVER SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY HAS 2 MAIN SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. ONE SLOWLY MOVING
NWD ON OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AK WITH SNOW MOST AREAS. OTHER SHRTWV HAS
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND NUNIVAK ISLE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AK PEN AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR COVERS ALL OF THE BERING ALONG
AND EAST OF 180.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS UP ALONG THE ALASKA
ALASKA RANGE AND IS SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
AGAIN IN SOME OF THE FAVORITE CHANNLED AREAS..LIKE PALV WITH A GUST
TO 46 MPH. UPPER TROF AXIS DRIFTS EAST TO THE ALASKA RANGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SO AREAS EAST OF THERE WILL STAY IN THE SNOW THREAT WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE
USUAL UPSLOPE AREAS ELSEWHERE. MORE CLEARING WILL ALLOW COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE KUSK DELTA ZONE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
-20/30S WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS BRISTOL BAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEASTLATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO
PUSH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND EVENYUALLY THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. MILDER AND STORMY FOR THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SEE FORECASTS.

*** JAN 08