Small Craft Advisory 271, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE MAR 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH 60 HOURS. CONFIDENCE BEYOND 60 HOURS IS
LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS. MODELS STILL SEEM
TO BE AGGRESSIVE ON PUSHING LOWER PRESSURE INTO THE BERING SEA. SOUTH
EXTENT OF THE ICE EDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL LIKELY HELP MAINTAIN
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND SLOW NORTH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE
BERING SEA. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD WITH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS OUT
WEST.

.UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT
WEAKENS THU NIGHT AS THROUGH OVER SW ALASKA MOVES EAST. THE PATTERN
OVER THE BEING SEA IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO QUITE A CHANGE LATE THIS
WEAK AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE BERING SEA AND A COUPLE OF
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVES MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER 990S LOW CENTER NEAR
57N 146W. THE CENTER IS PICKED UP BY THE 18Z NAM AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST TONIGHT...BUT STAY WELL SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. EXPECT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO GALES WITH
APPROACH OF THIS CENTER. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO WILL CONTINUE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH GULF. PATCHY FOG OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK RIDGING. GRADIENTS WILL
ONCE AGAIN RELAX OVER THE WESTERN GULF WED AS THE LOW COMPLEX DRIFTS
SOUTH. MAY SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL THIS
WEEKEND WITH EAST MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH.

.WEST...BRISK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
AK PEN INTO WED. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AK PEN WITH ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATE WED AS RIDGE PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND GULF LOW WEAKENS. UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED. SHOULD
BECOME MORE STABLE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE DELTA WED NIGHT AND THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE ALEUTIANS WED AND THU. LOW COMPLEX MOVEMENT FRI
AND SAT INTO THE BERING SEA IS STILL IN QUESTION...MAY SEE A MORE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN NORTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL CONFIDENCE THIS TIME FRAME IS LOW. SO
WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 AND 155. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...150 155
               165 AND 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08