Brisk Wind Advisory 30, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT WED MAR 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE FAIRLY REASONABLE.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIVERGENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. GRID PACKAGE IS GETTING OLD...SO WILL REFRESH
WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS THROUGH DAY 5. ALTHOUGH FAR FROM
PERFECT...FEEL THAT THE GFS IS THE COMPROMISE WHICH FITS BEST.

.UPPER LEVELS...BROAD GULF LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AND
WEAKEN. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES TO OVER THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT
THEN FLATTENS THU AS SHORT WAVE DRIVES SE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA. WAVE
MOVES OVER THE GULF FRI AFTERNOON AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA/SW ALASKA. BY FRIDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE BERING SEA
DIFFERS QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. THE ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BERING SEA WHEREAS THE GFS
SHOWS A MUCH MORE SUBDUED TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF WEAKER LOW CENTERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TO STAY OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE CENTER SETS UP SOUTH OF THE KENAI PEN ON
THU/THU NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO WEST
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE KENAI PEN...NORTH GULF.
WILL BUMP UP POPS IN CURRENT GRIDS TO REFLECT CHANGE. WILL GO WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE THREAT
OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI. THREAT OF SNOW
LESSENS FRI NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING. FRONTAL TROUGH BRINGS RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE WESTERN GULF SAT.

.WEST...UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL HOLD THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY THRU THU.
RIDGING ALONG THE DELTA LIKELY TO BRING SOME STRATUS AND FOG. EXPECT
RIDING TO HOLD THREAT OF STATUS AND FOG OVER THE DELTA THROUGH FRI
AND BRISTOL BAY THU NIGHT/FRI. LOW POSITIONS OVER THE ALEUTIANS STILL
IN QUESTION. EXPECT AS LOW COMPLEX SHIFTS NORTH THAT EAST/SE GALES
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH FRI. FRONTAL TROUGH
SPREADS RAIN AND SNOW TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOF ISLANDS FRI
AND THE WESTERN AK PEN FRI NIGHT. FRONTAL WEAKENS AS IT BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE SW MAINLAND SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172 175 AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08