Small Craft Advisory 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT SAT MAR 15 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS
REASONABLE AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH WED. LOW CENTER THAT MODELS
SHOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
MORE COMPLEX THEN CONSOLIDATED CENTER DEPICTED.

.UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST
AND FLATTENS AS LOW CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SHIFTS EAST TO
THE NORTH GULF SUN AFTERNOON. GEN LOW CENTER WEAKENS OVER THE GULF.
LONG WAVE EVENTUALLY COMES IN PHASE WED WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MAINLAND...TO ALONG 155W. NW FLOW
OVER THE BERING SEA INCREASES THROUGH WED AS TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID
RANGE...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF TODAY
HAS LOST SOME OF ITS PUNCH AS A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY LOW CENTER
DEVELOPS ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC. THIS
CENTER INTENSIFIES TO THE UPPER 970S UNDER STRONG SW JET AND MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUN MORNING. FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SOUTHCENTRAL/NORTH GULF WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL PRECIPITATION OR WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SEE STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHCENTRAL AND A BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT.
EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.

WEST...FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SW ALASKA WEAKENS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SECONDARY FRONTAL WRAP AROUND LOW CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND
PRIBILOFS ISLANDS TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
CENTER WILL LIKELY ENHANCE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
CENTER TO GALE STRENGTH OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. NW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AK PEN AND DIMINISH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AS LOW CENTER
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS THIS TIME
FRAME...WILL MAKE FEW IF ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 170 172 175 176 AND 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 08