Small Craft Advisory 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
145 PM ADT FRI MAR 14 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL IN RATHER SPLENDID AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A TYPICAL MARCH PATTERN IS UPON US WITH A
LARGE ALEUTIAN LOW 175 NM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATKA GIVING AN AREA OF
HEAVY WIND AND RAIN EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. DUTCH HARBOR
OBSERVED A PREFRONTAL WIND GUST OF 57 MPH THIS MORNING AND 43 OR 45 MPH
AT COLD BAY. UP NORTH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS HAVE KILLED THE BLOWING SNOW
AT ST GEORGE. ST PAUL, AT 30 DEGREES, STILL HAS VISIBILITIES IN THE 1/2
TO 1 MILE RANGE. WILL NOT RUSH TO END THE WARNING SINCE ANOTHER PRECIP
BAND ASOCD WITH THE FRONT IS ABOUT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

BLIZZARD WARNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM LOOKS TO BE A SUCCESS
WITH PASY OBSERVING 40 TO 65 MPH WINDS WITH A 1/2 MILE VSBY. POSSIBLE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NUNIVAK ISLAND AND
ALONG THE KUSKO DELTA CST. WITH THE CURRENT WINDS AND LOW TEMPS 1 INCH
OF SNOW WOULD BE ENUF FOR A WHITE OUT. SINCE BLOWING OR EVEN DRIFTING
SNOW WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. HAVE
ADDED SOME BLSN AND REDUCED VSBYS INTO THE AMENDED ZONE FORECAST AND
WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT DEAL WITH AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.

SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AND FOG PRIBILOFS TONIGHT THEN GO BACK TO
MORE SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD NORTH WINDS SWEEP BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
LOW CENTER MOVES TO SAND POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THIS PATTERN WILL COVER
ALL OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NXT 5
DAYS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONDS WILL COVER MOST AREA AS WELL.

EAST SIDE FORECASTS LOOK GOOD BUT WITH THE USUAL TIMING QUESTIONS. SNOW
MIXING WITH RAIN FOR KODIAK TONIGHT WITH NO MORE THAN TWO INCHES BELOW
500 FT WITH MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS ABOVE.

CLOUDS WIND AND SNOW INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH FULL GALES NORTH
GULF COAST ON SAT WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION STORM JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL
STAY AS SNOW EVEN ALONG THE COAST WITH CORDOVA RIGHT ON THE RAIN SNOW
EDGE LATE SAT AFTERNOON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WESTERN ALEUTIANS, PRIBILOFS AND POSSIBLY THE COAST OF
155.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 180 170 171 172 175 176 185.

PERCY MAR 08