Small Craft Advisory 199, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED MAR 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 00Z WED GFS PREFERRED MODEL FOR
OPERATIONAL PURPOSES DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER GFS
DOES INITIALIZE THE LOW COMING UP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ABOUT 5 MB
TOO WEAK...AS JUDGED BY SHIP OBS. WINDS AROUND THE LOW ALSO STRONGER
THAN PURE MODEL FORECAST.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE IS A LARGE 982 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB 75 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM THEN DRIFT
NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS
OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA BY EVENING THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE A 983 MB LOW 70
NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR THU NIGHT.

.SHORT FORECAST FOR EASTERN DOMAIN...
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
EASTERLY GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
MAY REACH 90 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THANKS TO COPIOUS WARM ADVECTION.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY...NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND POSSIBLY THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST OF WESTERN DOMAIN...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL
SPREAD RAIN OR WET SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TODAY.
HOWEVER COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE DELTA COAST MAINLY NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND
ALEUTIANS.

.BEYOND 48 HOURS...
A 977 MB LOW 510 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THU MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB AS IT MOVES TO 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY THU
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS
NEXT LOW ALONG A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. THIS WILL LIMIT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THUS KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. OUT WEST BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN
SCATTERED COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...GALE 125 129 132 138 140 141
         STORM 120 130
         HEAVY SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 08