Storm Warning 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 060013
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST WED MAR 5 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-061500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND THIS EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 43N 157W WILL STRENGTHEN 
TO 975 MB AS IT MOVES TO 53N 149W THU AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN 
MOVE TO 59N 152W FRI MORNING AT 970 MB.

$$

PKZ351-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AST WED MAR 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20
FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-061500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AST WED MAR 5 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED MAR 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. 00Z WED GFS PREFERRED MODEL FOR
OPERATIONAL PURPOSES DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER GFS
DOES INITIALIZE THE LOW COMING UP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ABOUT 5 MB
TOO WEAK...AS JUDGED BY SHIP OBS. WINDS AROUND THE LOW ALSO STRONGER
THAN PURE MODEL FORECAST.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE IS A LARGE 982 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB 75 NM WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM THEN DRIFT
NORTHWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL PASS
OVER KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA BY EVENING THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE A 983 MB LOW 70
NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR THU NIGHT.

.SHORT FORECAST FOR EASTERN DOMAIN...
STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
EASTERLY GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
MAY REACH 90 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THANKS TO COPIOUS WARM ADVECTION.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SUSITNA VALLEY...NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND POSSIBLY THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. PRECIPITATION FALLING MAINLY AS RAIN ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST OF WESTERN DOMAIN...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL
SPREAD RAIN OR WET SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TODAY.
HOWEVER COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE DELTA COAST MAINLY NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND
ALEUTIANS.

.BEYOND 48 HOURS...
A 977 MB LOW 510 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THU MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB AS IT MOVES TO 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY THU
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL DIRECT THIS
NEXT LOW ALONG A MORE EASTWARD TRACK. THIS WILL LIMIT WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THUS KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. OUT WEST BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN
SCATTERED COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125.
MARINE...GALE 125 129 132 138 140 141
         STORM 120 130
         HEAVY SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 08