Small Craft Advisory 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN MAR 2 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE GFS AN EUROPEAN
MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE LOW OFF OF KODIAK ISLAND BETTER THAN THE
NAM MODEL HAS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
AFTERNOON. A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING NORTH
INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEATHER FRONT ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR. A WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS MOVING NORTH INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER MODERATE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
UPPER PATTERN...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE
MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF AMCHITKA MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT EAST ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CHAIN TO BE JUST SOUTH OF ATKA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST BERING SEA, BRISTOL BAY AND KODIAK
ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, COOK INLET AND NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT THEN WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL FLATTEN MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH IT,
BUT WILL REBUILD AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF...THE WEAK LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
WILL MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. SNOW
OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL BECOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SNOW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL
INTERIOR MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
WITH AREAS OF SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR SECTION MONDAY NIGHT.

LOCAL GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE KENAI AND
CHUGACH MOUNTAIN MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW MOVE UP THE
WESTERN GULF AND INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SHOWERS INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND BECOMING
SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA MONDAY AND WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AKPEN MONDAY AND WILL MOVE
INTO BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE SNOW TUESDAY.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...
A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN JUST SOUTH OF
THE PRIBILOFS MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TURN WEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BERING TUESDAY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN BERING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BECOME
NORTHLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING AS A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE
MAIN LOW TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL EXTEND AN UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE ALCAN BORDER WILL PERSIST AND WILL TILT
NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY. THE COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AKPEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE PRIBILOFS.
MARINE...GALE 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170, 172, 176, 180, 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM MAR 08