Gale Warning 270, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 040234 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

CORRECTED ZONE 155.

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 973 MB LOW NEAR SAINT PAUL WILL WEAKEN TO 991 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
85 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT MATTHEW TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE 
TUE NIGHT AND WED. A 981 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE 
TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH. A 992 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE 
TO 65 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY TUE NIGHT AT 986 MB AND THEN REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED. 

$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT LATE EVENING. SEAS 
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 
50 KT IN THE EVENING OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. 
SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT.
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT EAST OF ATKA ON
THE PACIFIC SIDE IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST TOWARD ATTU. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 45 KT BY LATE 
EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT IN 
ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 041306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT
MOVES TO 250 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI THU MORNING. A 985 MB LOW 180 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
INTO BRISTOL BAY BY WED EVENING.
$$

PKZ150-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-050300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-050300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT.  
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT.  
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT.  
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-050300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-050300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT.  
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.  
.THU...N WIND 30 KT.  
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-050300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-050300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-050300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-050300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-050300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST TUE MAR 4 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST MON MAR 3 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP ANCHOR LOW IS CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH MULTIPLE WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
ITS CIRCULATION. A RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND ALASKA. A STRONG ZONAL JET
(ESTIMATED MAX AROUND 200 KT) EXTENDS OUT OF ASIA ALONG 30N AND
THEN CURVES NORTHWARD AROUND 160W. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A STRONG
LOW BETWEEN THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...TRACKING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANCHOR LOW. OCCLUSION EXTENDS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS TO BRISTOL BAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ENDED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AS WINDS DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES
ROSE WITH THE FRONT NEARING. QUIKSCAT WINDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A FAIRLY CONCENTRIC LOW CENTER WITH STRONG WINDS ON ALL SIDES
OF THE LOW. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS ARE ENHANCING WINDS FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTS TO 64 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
IN COLD BAY. RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND SHOWS
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND. THERE ARE STRONG EASTERLY
CHINOOKS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIMITING PRECIPITATION IN THE USUAL
LEE SIDE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHERLY SO SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT INTO THESE AREAS AS WELL. FINALLY...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE LOWS FORMING IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE MAIN UPPER JET...IN THE BOX BORDERED BY 40N TO 45N
AND 160W TO 170W.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH ANCHOR LOW AND
BERING LOW. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED THEY ARE NOT DOING VERY WELL
PICKING UP ON DEVELOPING LOWS DOWN OVER THE PACIFIC...AND THESE
PROBLEMS ARE REFLECTED IN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...PREFER THE MULTIPLE LOWS
INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS INSTEAD OF THE ONE BROAD LOW.
BEYOND THIS POINT MODEL SOLUTIONS RAPIDLY DIVERGE AND THERE IS VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE GFS/UKMET DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW
FAR TO THE SOUTH AND TRACK TO THE GULF LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF/NAM DEVELOP ONE OF THE LOWS TRACKING TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND MOVE IT INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WAS
BASED OFF A LOW TRACKING TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. WITH ANCHOR LOW
SO FAR WEST AND BUILDING RIDGE PREFER SOLUTIONS THAT TRACK LOW
FARTHER WEST. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WILL TREND TOWARD THE NEW GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BERING LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
STALL AND WEAKEN NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES BACK WESTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF THE ANCHOR LOW. THE OCCLUSION
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INLAND AND FALL APART OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
SNOW...MAINLY IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT (EXTENDING FROM THE TRIPLE POINT OVER BRISTOL
BAY SOUTHWARD TO THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOWS) WILL MOVE TO SHELIKOF
STRAIT/COOK INLET TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE BACK WESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...SPREADING MORE PRECIPITATION BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AS EACH SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AIR CONTINUES TO GET WARMER. THIS ONE
WILL WARM SOME AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA ENOUGH TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. A LOW TRACK TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS WELL
AS THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...SO DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL CONTINUE
IN THE USUAL PLACES. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA TUE NIGHT AND THEN STALL AS THE ANCHOR LOW BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTH AND EASTWARD UNDERNEATH THIS LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT WILL OCCUR AFTER THIS...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
CHANCE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
DUE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ANCHOR LOW AND EAST PACIFIC RIDGE.
THEREFORE..EXPECT EVEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
BY MID WEEK AND AND ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND CHANGE PRECIPITATION
TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT LEAST MIXING WITH RAIN IN SOME INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS 500MB 5-WAVE INDICATES PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT CHANGEABLE WEATHER THIS TIME OF YEAR IS THE
NORM SO LOOKS REASONABLE THAT WE WONT STAY IN THIS SAME PATTERN
FOR A LONG TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 138 160 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 08