Small Craft Advisory 174, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED FEB 27 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A REX BLOCK IS FIRMLY IN PLACE AT THE UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING...
THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND UPPER LOWS ARE NORTHEAST OF
JAPAN...OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS...AND OVER SOUTHEAST
AK. AT THE SURFACE...LOWS ARE NORTHEAST OF JAPAN...SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF
THE STATE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DISSIPATING THE EASTERN GULF
LOW...MOVING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO NEAR KODIAK
ISLAND...AND BRINGING A WEATHER FRONT FRONT INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THE FORECAST DEPENDS HEAVILY UPON THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT WILL BRING
GALES AND STORMS TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHAIN BEGINNING THU
AND REACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK
ISLAND WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE LATER TODAY WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW DISSIPATES
THU...AND CLOUDS WILL RETREAT SOUTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL THEN ALSO RETURN TO BRISTOL BAY
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE GULF WILL
KEEP RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS INLAND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.
ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. OVER SOUTHWEST AK...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE EAST...A
WEATHER FRONT CROSSES THE GULF SUN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE GULF COAST. AS THIS FRONT REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST
AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS INLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 138 150 155 170 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS FEB 08