Gale Warning 147, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 271307
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST WED FEB 27 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA BECOMES A 988 MB LOW WED
NIGHT NEAR 56N 153W. THIS LOW WEAKENS TO 1000 MB THU NIGHT NEAR 53N
154W. A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THU MORNING. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES A 978 MB LOW NEAR 50N 177E
THURSDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST WED FEB 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST WED FEB 27 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST WED FEB 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-280300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST WED FEB 27 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST TUE FEB 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FORECAST MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT WEST ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT ON THE LAST TWO RUNS. DIFFERENCES OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
EAST. BIGGEST CHANGE IS WITH FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF SURFACE LOW
NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT AND THE MAINTENANCE OF THIS TREND
THROUGH THU. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
IS SIMILAR ON BOTH THE 00Z-12Z MODEL RUNS. FURTHER EAST POSITION OF
LOW NEAR KODIAK WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
SO FOR NOW WILL GENERALLY LEAN WITH 00Z GFS RUN THIS FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE BERING SEA HIGH HAS
PINCHED OFF NORTH AND IS ON ITS WAY TO THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC. UPPER LOW
CENTER EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGE SHOWS WEST MOVEMENT TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
PRIBILOFS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CENTER TO WEAKEN NEAR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AS DEVELOPING CENTER OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN WED NIGHT/THU. THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY DROPS SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF ALASKA FRI AS THE LONG WAVE DIGS SW FROM THE CANADIAN
ARCTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE RIDGE THEN REBUILDS BACK
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AS THE LONG WAVE MOVES TO ALONG
THE ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...MOISTURE MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF WITH LOW COMPLEX IS
STARTING TO SHOW ON THE MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR. EXPECT SNOW WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE GULF AND COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES INLAND.
WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
AHEAD OF ADVANCE FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY GALES TONIGHT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME WED. POSITION OF NEXT LOW TO MOVE SW OF
KODIAK WED NIGHT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...EXPECT
GENERAL FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE TO OVER KODIAK ISLAND WED NIGHT AND TO
THE NORTH GULF THU. EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

.WEST...LIGHT SNOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE WAVE
MOVES WEST. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER SW ALASKA THROUGH
WED...MAY SEE A LITTLE SNOW TO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY WED NIGHT/THU WITH
WEAK OVERRUNNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
ELONGATES AND TRIPLE POINT MOVES SOUTH OF UNALASKA. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO THE EAST ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN
TONIGHT AND WED. BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS LIKELY OVER THE AK PEN
AND EXTREME EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT...AND AK PEN THU. STRONG SE
WINDS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT/THU IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODEL UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 138 155 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 08