Small Craft Advisory 162, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST SAT FEB 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THE
DIFFERENCES FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS IN THE LOW APPROACHING THE GULF
HAVE BEEN IRONED OUT. THE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA ON MONDAY HAS A
LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS BUT SINCE THE LOW WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THE DIFFERENCES WILL NOT
EFFECT THE FRONTAL AREA THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND BE THE WEATHER PRODUCER THERE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE BERING SEA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO A REX BLOCK THROUGH MONDAY. A THE SURFACE
THE HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL EXPAND AND COVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE STATE AS WELL. A LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
MOVING INTO THE GULF AND WILL MOVE JUST A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA THAT WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A NEW AND
STRONGER LOW BEHIND IT WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK OF THE OLD LOW AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL ZONE NEARLY STATIONARY WHERE IT IS PUSHING
INTO THE BERING SEA RIDGE. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS AND WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIGGEST AREA OF WEATHER IS IN THE CENTRAL
TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX WILL PERSIST IN THOSE AREAS.
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT BUT MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THE GRADIENT
SHOULD INCREASE AS WELL.
KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS THEY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLAND. THIS SHOULD END BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
BERING SEA WILL HELP KEEP THE WEATHER SYSTEMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS WEEKEND. THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT
DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF TUESDAY. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS BY TUESDAY FROM THE TIGHT GRADIENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 150 155 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 08