Storm Warning 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 251257
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON FEB 25 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW NEAR 52N 170E MOVES TO 53N 163E TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENS TO 995 MB THEN DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT. A 985 MB LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR 49N 179W MONDAY EVENING THE MOVES TO 50N 166W TUESDAY
NIGHT AS 978 MB. 
$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...WEST OF 174 W...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. EAST OF 174
W...EAST WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...WEST OF 174 W...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. EAST OF 174 W...EAST WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY EAST OF 174 W.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 260010
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST MON FEB 25 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 MB LOW NEAR 48N 179W MOVES TO 49N 164W AT 983 MB WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY 980 MB LOW MOVES TO 53N 155W WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
32 FT SUBSIDING TO 27 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 58N.

.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 57N. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH 
OF 57N. FREEZING SPRAY ELSEWHERE.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS WEST. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW 
SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 21 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS WEST. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST MON FEB 25 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN FEB 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
EAST...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS LOOK FAIRLY
REASONABLE THROUGH 60 HR(TUE). THEY HAVE A SIMILAR HANDING OF
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...STRONGER LOW TO SOUTH...AND
MAINLAND RIDGE. GFS/EC TEND TO HOLD IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 96
HR(WED NIGHT). DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BEYOND.

.WEST...UNSTABLE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
MODELS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE GFS 12Z GFS RUN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THEN
PREVIOUS 00Z RUN BY KEEPING THE GENERAL LOW COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BERING SEA
ICE EDGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION INTO SW AK WILL HOLD UP SURFACE
PRESSURES AND FORCE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT/MON AS UPPER CENTER DROPS SW TOWARD THE AK
PEN. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW/SN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS SPREADING WEST OVER THE GULF AND
COPPER RIVER AND RADAR DATA SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER/NORTH GULF MON
NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD ADVECTION AND GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW. GAP
WINDS LIKELY TO BE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT/MON WITH
WEAK PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE PACKING. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THESE WINDS
WILL ENOUGH FOR MINIMUM STRONG WIND HEADLINES.

.WEST...WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA REACHES ITS PEAK
WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING JUST BELOW -18C TONIGHT AND MON. AFTER THAT
THE ADVECTION BECOMES GENERALLY NEUTRAL AS THE LOW CENTER DROPS SOUTH
TOWARD THE AK PEN AND SETS UP EASTERLY FLOW. AS UPPER CENTER DROPS
SOUTH EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT INTO SW
ALASKA. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AK
PEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. STRONG
WINDS WITH FRONTAL TROUGH/STORM CENTER OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL
HOLD WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS OUT WEST. MADE FEW
CHANGES IN THE EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 175 AND 176. GALES 172 AND 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 141 165 179 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 08