Small Craft Advisory 141, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
345 PM AST SUN FEB 17 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE STATE. THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW IS A VERTICALLY STACKED...SLOW MOVING LOW JUST SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST WIND AND WEATHER PRODUCER IS A
LOW WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND INLAND OVER BRISTOL BAY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW NEAR DUTCH. LOTS OF
WIND...RAIN...SNOW...AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
LOW. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS OUT TONIGHT FOR THOMPSON PASS
AND A SNOW ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLOW
MOVING LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND WARM...MOIST GULF OF ALASKA
SHORTWAVES AND LOW PRESSURES MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BUT THEN ARE HAVING
SOME TROUBLE ON THE NEXT GULF LOW TUESDAY. FAVORING A COMPROMISE
AMONG THE MODELS AS THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND LOWS IN THE GULF
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DIFFICULT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHERN MAINLAND...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. OVER THE
MAINLAND...MOIST AND WARM SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE MORE COMMON PRECIPITATION
TYPE AT SEA LEVEL. THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND GULF
OF ALASKA THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...
THE LOW PRESSURE AROUND DUTCH HARBOR WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN
BERING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONE 130.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 132 172 175 185 351 352 411 412
          413.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING ZONES 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY FEB 08