Gale Warning 202, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181759 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
900 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

UPDATED ZONE 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS. A 972 MB LOW MOVES TO WITHIN
350 NM EAST OF KODIAK LATE MON NIGHT THEN TO 75 NM EAST OF KODIAK
CITY AT 968 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING.
$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
900 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
627 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
627 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
627 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DECREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
627 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
627 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 190004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 975 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO 100 NM 
NORTHEAST OF KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON AT 964 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE NIGHT.
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK 
WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-191500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 65 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK 
ENTRANCE. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-191500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 8 FT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-191500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER
GUSTS 60 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-191500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-191500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-191500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-191500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-191500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUT OF
TURNAGAIN ARM...GUSTS TO 50 KT BECOMING GUSTS TO SE 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE 
WATERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ141-191500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE 
WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON FEB 18 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE, SLOWLY WEAKENING LOW JUST NORTH
OF ATKA DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE OVER ALASKA THIS MORNING. A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGH THE GULF CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SEVERAL WAVES AROUND THE
LOW IN THE BERING ARE AFFECTING THE REGION. ONE WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR
THE SOUTHERN ENTRANCE OF SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL MOVE NW WHILE ITS
PREDECESSOR MOVES THROUGH THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE GFS PREFERRED ONCE AGAIN. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS ARE ABOUT 6 HRS SLOW WITH THE WAVE NEAR SHELIKOF BUT THIS WILL
ONLY HAVE AN EFFECT ON WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY CONFINING PRECIP TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND
MOUNTAIN TOPS WHILE PRODUCING MAINLY RAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS WEST OF
THE PARKS HIGHWAY IN THE SUSTINA VALLEY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS. THE WARM AIR THAT INVADED YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION PERSISTS. THE NEXT BIG PRECIP MAKER COMES AT US FROM THE
EASTERN GULF ON TUES WITH MORE WIND AND MAINLY RAIN. AS THIS FEATURE
LIFTS INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK TO
SNOW WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WESTERN BERING SHIFTS
EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK HELPING TO SHUNT ANY STORMS APPROACHING THE
GULF SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS SPELLS COLDER AND DRIER WX BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411 412.
         GALE 125 130 132 138 175 185 351 352 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA