Small Craft Advisory 121, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
BUT ARE STILL PROBLEMS IN THE EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A
SECONDARY LOW HAD FORMED EAST OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE GFS HAS PICKED UP IN THIS
NEW DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUES TO TREAT IT AS SINGLE CENTERED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN MODEL APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY ONE THAT
HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH TWO SEPARATE LOWS AND IS THE MODEL OF THE
DAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
AND WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN EASTERN ALASKA TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. COLD AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD WEST
WITH THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW.

A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE SOME SNOW INTO EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD.

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A COUPLE OF MODERATE
SPINNING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES ALONG THE CHAIN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TUESDAY THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SNOW ALONG EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THE ALASKA RANGE WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY. MORE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF
THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THE COLD DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
OVER THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS.
THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES NORTHEAST. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. A NEW STORM DEVELOPING THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 550 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

THE STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM FEB 08