Gale Warning 178, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 120015
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 986 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WILL MOVE INTO THE
KENAI PENINSULA MON NIGHT. A 956 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK AND WEAKEN TO 966 MB
WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-121500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-121500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

.TONIGHT...NORTH WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10
KT OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-121500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASE TO E 25 KT BY MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-121500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 FOOT. SNOW.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-121500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE 20 KT THIS EVENING INCREASING TO NW 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-121500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-121500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-121500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NW 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-121500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST MON FEB 11 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N 15 KT BECOMING TO W WIND 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 10 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
BUT ARE STILL PROBLEMS IN THE EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A
SECONDARY LOW HAD FORMED EAST OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE GFS HAS PICKED UP IN THIS
NEW DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUES TO TREAT IT AS SINGLE CENTERED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN MODEL APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY ONE THAT
HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH TWO SEPARATE LOWS AND IS THE MODEL OF THE
DAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
AND WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN EASTERN ALASKA TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. COLD AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVEL OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD WEST
WITH THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW.

A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE SOME SNOW INTO EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN. EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE REST OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD.

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A COUPLE OF MODERATE
SPINNING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUES ALONG THE CHAIN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TUESDAY THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN MAINLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SNOW ALONG EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BLOWING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS AND THE ALASKA RANGE WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY. MORE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW WEST OF
THE TALKEETNA, CHUGACH AND KENAI MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THE COLD DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
OVER THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS.
THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES NORTHEAST. WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEAKENING LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. A NEW STORM DEVELOPING THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 550 MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER IN THE
WEEK.

THE STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM FEB 08