Small Craft Advisory 1045, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH

FRI MORNING ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND REASONABLE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...OMEGA BLOCK WITH RIDGE POSITION OVER THE
BERING SEA LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEAK.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH AXIS THE GULF AND MAINLAND WILL SHIFT EAST SOME
AS CUT-OFF OVER THE GULF LIFTS NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NORTHERLY JET OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TO SHIFT OVER THE MAINLAND
TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND AND LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE GULF. THE NET RESULT WILL BE TO CONTINUE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH MON AND THE
NORTH GULF THROUGH TUE. UPPER SUPPORT INTENSIFIES AS SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT/TUE INCREASES NORTH/NE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX SOME OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MON
NIGHT AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. SO
WILL SEE WINDS FALL BELOW WARNING LEVELS IN ZONE 111 MON NIGHT AND
TUE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH GULF. HOWEVER STRONG WIND HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE COPPER RIVER DELTA INTO WED. COLD TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND COMBINED WITH GAP FLOWS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 141 AND 145.

.WEST...BRISK AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SW MAINLAND THROUGH MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MON NIGHT AND TUE
AS JET CORE SHIFTS EAST AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND. COLD
TEMPS WILL HOLD INLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE AK PEN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN BERING SEA
APPROACHES THE AK PEN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME LATER THIS
EVENING AFTER WAVES MOVES SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. STRONG SE TO EAST
WINDS LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH
WED WITH BERING SEA RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND WARNINGS 111 131 AND 135. BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
MARINE...GALE 121 130 132 150 155 165 175 176

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08