Gale Warning 691, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 191254
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  ON THU MORNING A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 175E. IT WILL
THEN STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB AND MOVE TO 57N 175E BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 191630 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
730 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

UPDATED ALL ZONES

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-200300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.  ON THU MORNING A 990 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 175E. IT 
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN TO 972 MB AND MOVE TO 57N 175E BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
730 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
730 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
730 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-200300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
730 AM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E TO SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 200001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 45N 167E WILL STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 56N 180E THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 55N 172W FRI
AFTERNOON AT 980 MB.

$$

PKZ411-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-201500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED NOV 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 201230
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING. A 999 MB LOW NEAR 50N 174E WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 971 MB AND MOVE TO 57N 178W BY FRI MORNING.  IT WILL
THEN WEAKEN TO 979 MB AND MOVE TO 55N 166W BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO
18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
135 PM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
LOW COMPLEX IS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A TRIPLE POINT
LOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION QUICKLY STRENGTHENED THIS
MORNING AND HAS NOW BECOME OCCLUDED. THE FRONT IS BEING PUSHED NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE GULF WHILE THE LOW BEGINS TO CURVE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE BERING WITH A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A 165KT JET HEADED FOR THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO
CONFIRM THIS...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. THE MARINE FORECAST
WINDS ARE ALREADY HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...SO WONT NEED TO MAKE
MANY ADJUSTMENTS. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LOCATION OF THE MULTIPLE LOWS...BUT DIVERGE AS THEY CONSOLIDATE
INTO A SINGLE CENTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL TREND OF PUSHING THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST...SO WILL INCREASE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS.

MODELS SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH LOWS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN BERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE
MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST. THERE IS NOW GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPMENT OF TRIPLE POINT LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVEMENT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY...SO WILL TREND A
LITTLE MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD HELP PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO
EITHER WEAKEN OR BREAK THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT TO
BE LOCALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH KODIAK ISLAND EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES ON KODIAK ISLAND ARE CURRENTLY NEAR FREEZING AND DONT
EXPECT MUCH CHANGE BY THE TIME SNOW STARTS. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING DONT ANTICIPATE VISIBILITIES WILL GET LOW ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT SOMEWHERE AROUND 1 MILE IS LIKELY.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE ISLAND. WHILE THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
HAVE A NORTHEAST COMPONENT. THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR TO
MIX IN A LITTLE RAIN ALONG THE GULF...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. SNOW WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
IT GENERALLY LIGHT. THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO
BE WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHICH WILL BE IN AN AREA OF STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION AND WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. VERY DRY AIR
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUALLY BE REINFORCED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW SO ANY PRECIPITATION T5HAT FALLS FROM ABOVE WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. AT MOST THERE MIGHT BE A FEW
FLURRIES RIGHT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW REMAIN OVER
THE GULF. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
STRONG...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALASKA PENINSULA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN MODERATE
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL GRADUALLY
BE PINCHED AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF ON THE EAST AND A STRONG
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY AND TRACK TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
PRIBILOFS FRIDAY. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THIS POINT. MODELS INDICATE WINDS IN THE STORM FORCE TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN WINDS NO
HIGHER THAN GALE FORCE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A MEAN
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE BERING SEA WITH UPPER JET SETTING UP JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN UP INTO THE GULF. IF ACCURATE...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE STORM PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...130 132 138 140 150.
         GALE WARNING...120 121 141 155 160 165 175 176 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 08