Gale Warning 667, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 272339 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

CORRECTED ZONES 175 176 179

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 160 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB AT 75
NM NORTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON. IT WILL THEN WEAKEN
TO 995 MB AND MOVE NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
22 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
22 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 84
HOURS.  EVEN PAST THAT POINT THE DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY SMALL.  BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH PAC.  GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ON THIS
SOLUTION...RESULTING IN A WEAK BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST.  HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVELS INDICATE THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWARD FASTER AS
WELL...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS CHOSEN IN ORDER TO PICK UP
THIS FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION.  AFTER 120 HOURS THE MODELS CONVERGE
AGAIN ON THE SOLUTION GIVING A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO THE
FORECAST.  OVERALL...GFS WAS CHOSEN AS THE MODEL OF THE DAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
MAINLAND AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING.  THIS IS BRINGING A
STRONG NORTHERLY JET INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE WEST
COAST.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE SURFACE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF CORDOVA AND A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW JUST MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WILL BRING A MORE WESTERLY JET OVER THE WESTERN
BERING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE SYSTEMS TO CROSS THE BERING FAIRLY
QUICKLY. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
CORDOVA WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DISSIPATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...CLEAR AND COLD FOR MOST OF THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
 THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND CAN EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF SLOWLY FILLS.  SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT SO FAR AND
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL BRING SOME GALES TO THE MARINES BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL STAY AT SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH OR BELOW.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MAINLAND MEANS COLD TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOME FOG THIS
MORNING WITH THE WATERS OFFSHORE NOT YET FROZEN.  THIS FOG SHOULD
CLEAR UP LATER ON AS THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WEST INCREASES
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.  GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE THIS
MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.  IN THE
ALEUTIANS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AS THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING.  THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY STRONG
AND PACKS A GOOD PUNCH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MARINES.  A LOT OF WARM AIR IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW ONTO THE WEST COAST THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FOR MOST OF THE STATE.  MID
WEEK LOOKS TO BE WET AND WINDY FOR THE MAINLAND. EXPECT A LOT OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND RAIN AS THIS LOW HAS QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  BY FRIDAY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AND THIS SHOULD CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPS ALL OVER AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 130 155 160 165 180 170 172 176 185 179 411 414
         STORM 175 412 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF OCT 08