Storm Warning 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 271109
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 985 MB LOW 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB AND MOVE TO 170 NM
SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.  IT WILL THEN WEAKEN
TO 984 MB AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTH OF MEKORYUK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-280200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON OCT 27 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AKDT SUN OCT 26 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM JAPAN
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST TO
AROUND 35N 160W...AND FINALLY HEADS BACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE YUKON. A 988 MB LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK EARLY THIS MORNING IS RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE
JET STREAM AND BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA ALONG A FRONT EXTENDED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS
PRESENT OUT WEST THIS MORNING...CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS.

THE GULF LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF
CORDOVA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY. A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE OUT WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH THE JET STREAM WORKING NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST/CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES...RAIN...AND WIND AS A
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY NICE AGREEMENT ALL THE WAY THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...GFS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN
HOW FAR EAST THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE BEING SHEARED APART BY THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MAINLAND. THE NEW GFS AND THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF ARE
BRINGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST BEFORE SHEARING APART AND WE HAVE
GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
THE 988 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK IS STILL BRINGING STORM FORCE WINDS
THIS MORNING ALONG A FRONT RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW.
HOWEVER...AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD CORDOVA IT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS. THE LOW WILL REACH
THE AREA JUST OFF THE COAST BETWEEN CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.
THE WEST EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW IS JUST GRAZING THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND THE
WEST EDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THIS AFTERNOON
ONWARD...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM CORDOVA NORTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE A
CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS BEING ISSUED. ALSO OF CONCERN
ARE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AS COLD ADVECTION
KICKS BACK IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME AREAS WHICH WILL RECEIVE THE GUSTIER WINDS INCLUDE BROAD
PASS...THOMPSON PASS AND VALDEZ...AND THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. ALSO
KICKING IN WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH WILL TAKE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING LATE TODAY. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND LOCALLY WINDY...MANY PLACES WILL SEE A
GOOD DOSE OF SUNSHINE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
DRY AND COLD UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TODAY TO THE WEST OF THE GULF LOW PRESSURE AND TO
THE EAST OF THE BERING HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS ARE
STILL FAIRLY MOIST WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE BERING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MONDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. A FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BERING WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST
BEGINNING TUESDAY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
TRANQUIL SETUP TODAY OUT IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. HIGH PRESSURE
IS POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE
OVERTAKES THE REGION...A CHANGE TO MUCH WARMER...WET AND WINDY. THE
RAIN AND WIND IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY...BUT
AS A LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES JUST NORTH OF ATTU TONIGHT THE WINDS
AND RAIN IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING WILL FURTHER INCREASE. THE
LOW INTENSIFIES TO ABOUT 975 MB AS IT MOVES TO AROUND SAINT MATTHEW
TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONG FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLY
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS LATE
TONIGHT TO THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND TO THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING ACROSS
THE BERING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH
THE ENERGY THEN SPLITTING AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ENERGY WILL SPLIT BECAUSE OF A BLOCKING AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA
WHICH WILL INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERSIST INTO THE LONG
TERM. GENERALLY SPEAKING FOR THE EXTENDED...EXPECT PROGRESSIVE WET
AND WARM WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH
SEMIPERMANENT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WHICH MAY MAKE IT EAST TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 138 175 176 412 413.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 125 140 150 172 179 185 351 352 411 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY OCT 08