Gale Warning 50, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 985 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL MOVE NEAR SEWARD SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN MOVE TO 100 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD AND DISSIPATE MONDAY
MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-070300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-070300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-070300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-070300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-070300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-070300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND MON ...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-070300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-070300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-070300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 6 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SAT JAN 5 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE FAR EASTERN
GULF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. 500MB UPPER AIR PLOT
SHOWS TEMPS AROUND -40 DEGREES CELSIUS NEAR LOW CENTER WITH -30S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE MAINLAND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN SIBERIA DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. OFF TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL RUSSIA IS ANOTHER COLD CORE
LOW WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW JUST EAST
OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.
THE UPPER JET...WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT AROUND 30 TO
35N LATITUDE IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF LOWS ALONG THE
TROUGH/FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GULF AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW OFFSHORE. THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION IS FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO
THE WESTERN GULF AND NORTH PACIFIC. SAR (SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR)
IMAGERY FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 50 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MOST PLACES
OVER THE MAINLAND ARE COLD AND DRY WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO. THE COLD ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BERING/BRISTOL BAY IS
PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CALM CONDITIONS
PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING BUT SYSTEMS
ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW JUST EAST OF KAMCHATKA IS AMPLIFYING
THE BERING RIDGE AS IT PUSHED UP AGAINST IT. THIS PROCESS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE AND PUSH TH UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
ALASKA SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MONDAY. AS THIS LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD THE GULF TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE PULLED BACK
WESTWARD TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WILL BRING SNOW INTO
COASTAL REGIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
LAST THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN TAPER OFF HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW (AND SURFACE LOW) MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SNOW INLAND SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER CENTER. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED COLD AND DRY INLAND. SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT FROM CURRENT
SPEEDS LATE SUNDAY AS COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

OUT WEST...ONE OF THE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN HEAD TOWARD
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GFS 500MB 5-WAVE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE CURRENT LONG-WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SO EXPECT
MORE OF THE SAME...MAINLY COLD AND DRY OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A
SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
COAST...COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY WINDS/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/AKPEN/KODIAK ISLAND REGION...AND SYSTEMS PASSING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 132 138 140
                              150 155 160 165 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JAN 08