Gale Warning 487, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 241142
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 58N 152W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 999 MB AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 57N 145W THU NIGHT. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS TO NEAR 56N 140W AT 1001
MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-250200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E OF 148W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. W OF 148W...N WIND 20 TO
30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST W OF 148W. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 35 KT W OF 150W. SEAS 5
TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W TO NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST W OF 149W. SEAS 7 TO
11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT...STRONGEST W OF 148W. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 242320
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 998 MB LOW 58N 148W WILL MOVE TO 56N 141W AT 1003 MB 
MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-251400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW TO NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST W OF 148W. 
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 251144
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR 57N 146W WILL WEAKEN TO 1001 MB AND MOVE TO 56N
141W SATURDAY MORNING.  IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN
TO 1006 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT WED JUL 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
12Z GFS IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN THAN THE GFS AND
HAS BEEN THE MODEL OF CHOICE.  THE NAM CONTINUES TO DIFFER FROM THE
OTHER MODELS WITH THE GULF LOW.  THE NAM SOLUTION HAS A STRONGER LOW
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS BY FRI MORNING.  THE PLAN TODAY
IS TO STICK WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PREDOMINATE UPPER AIR FEATURE IS A COLD UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER BETHEL AND DIGGING DOWN TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST ON THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. FURTHER WEST WEAK LOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY.  EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WITH THIS LOW. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING UNDER A RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW MOVING TO THE GULF FROM WESTERN ALASKA WILL COMBINE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
GULF ON THURSDAY.  THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THEN MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FRIDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES
EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF TO
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER NORTON SOUND DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
INCREASES INSTABILITY AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.  THE
POSSIBLE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SOUTH CENTRAL MAY BE IN A BREAK IN BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS.  SINCE THE LOWS ARE WEAK AND THE GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHICH WILL WIN OUT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASH FALL ADVISORY ZONE 185.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH JUL 08