Gale Warning 483, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM AND GFS ARE USED FOR THE FIRST TWO
DAYS.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER TWO DAYS.  WE STAYED CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SOLUTION WHICH WAS THE ECMWF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERTICAL LOW NEAR COLD BAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU
THEN WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY
SAT NIGHT.  THE INTERIOR THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS THU THROUGH SAT.
A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF SAT AND SUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
FOR MUCH OF THE GULF...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO EAST WINDS
IN THE USUAL CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL. RAINFALL WITH
THE FRONT  WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING MOST INLAND AREAS DRY BUT CLOUDY. ISOLATED
THUNDER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. GUSTY WINDS ARE A
CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING THU.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING...GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SURROUND THIS
LOW AND GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. BY THU EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
BERING BRINGING MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK AND NORTH OF THE AK RANGE WILL BRING
MORE INSTABILITY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. COOL CLOUDY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE GULF RIDGE AND INTERIOR TROUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...    GALE  120 125 130 132 138 140 160 172 351 352 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH JUN 08