Gale Warning 454, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
409 AM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

CORRECTED TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED THIS MORNING FROM
THE BERING SEA SOUTH TO 30N...WITH A JET STREAM OF ABOUT 150 KT
ROUNDING OUT THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING
IS DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
RAPIDLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MOVES NORTH TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A NOSE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. AS THIS HAPPENS...A
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED FROM APPROXIMATELY
MCGRATH EAST TO GLENNALLEN MOVES NORTH AND OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING FOR LESS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN
YESTERDAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE MAJOR
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH TO AROUND UNIMAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS BEEN
CONTINUALLY TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE WESTERLY AND SLOWER SOLUTION OF
THE NAM...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM WILL TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...EVEN INTO THE
EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. AS A
NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...THE THERMAL
TROUGH MOVES FURTHER NORTH WITH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AS WELL...MOSTLY NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR A LITTLE COOLER. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT THEY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE NORTHERN GULF
FROM SEWARD TO CORDOVA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH MARINE STRATUS.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY. THIS FRONT BRINGS HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA...SOUTHWEST TO
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE EAST SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. DECENT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SOLID GALE FORCE
WINDS IN MOST MARINE AREAS. THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES NORTH TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM MCGRATH NORTH. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP
TONIGHT AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS FIRST AROUND BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND THEN
SPREADS ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TERRIBLY HEAVY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FOR THE WEEKEND THANKS TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TODAY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LOW CROSSES NEAR FALSE PASS
FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE LOW ON BOTH THE FRONT
AND BACK SIDE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED STORM FORCE WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A CALMER
WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP. EXPECT ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY
TRANSITIONING INTO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTHWEST
INTO THE EASTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 351 352
         414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY MAY 08