Gale Warning 416, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 222239
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
THE 987 MB LOW AT 49N 163W WILL INTENSIFY TO 980 MB TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN TO 986 MB AT 56N 168W FRI. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GULF
FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM ADT THU MAY 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 231148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR FALSE PASS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA TODAY. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES
THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF ON
SAT.
$$

PKZ351-240200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-240200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 240047 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW 120 NM EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL BECOME A 996 MB LOW
NEAR SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND BY SAT AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO 1008 MB
NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT AND SUN.
$$

PKZ351-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM ADT FRI MAY 23 2008

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED MAY 21 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AT THE SURFACE THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS WEAKENING AND
DRIFTING NORTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS DISSIPATING TO A TROUGH
AND EXTENDS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST KODIAK
ISLAND. THIS IS UNDER THE UPPER LOW THAT IS IN A LARGE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AROUND 45N 175W. A STRONG 200 KT JET
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE NEXT STORM FORMING ABOUT 900 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY IN THIS TROUGH
AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
EAST TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY INITIATED IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE STILL ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY OF
THE MAJOR INCOMING NORTH PACIFIC STORM. SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE LOW WEST AND WE STILL HAVE DOUBTS AS TO THE PATH
THIS STORM WILL TAKE. THE LATEST RUNS INDICATE IT CROSSING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BETWEEN COLD BAY AND SAND POINT THOUGH WE FEEL THE STORM
WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK THROUGH FALSE PASS INTO THE BERING SEA. AS THE
STORM TRACKS NORTH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WE
ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING OVER THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEY AREA. THE LATEST
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND WE ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THAT
REGION. THE INCOMING LOW LEVEL COOL AIR OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SHOULD
DAMPEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA THIS
EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THURSDAY THOUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE ZONE MAY BE ON THE
FRINGE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND STILL HOLD A POSSIBILITY OF LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THURSDAY.

THE MARINE STRATUS IS OVER THE GULF FROM CAPE SUCKLING EAST AND IS
PUSHING EAST AS THE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
INCOMING STORM. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL
THE RIDGE DOES MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF GIVES WAY TO A STRONG WEATHER FRONT...EXPECT STRONG
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND AND HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
THE WEAK SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS PRODUCING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. EXPECT THE NORTH TO EAST FLOW TO PERSIST OVER THE
PRIBILOFS AND THUS A CONTINUATION OF THE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SECONDARY WRAPPED FRONT WITH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE TONIGHT. THE NEXT STORM MOVING IN FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD GALES AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THANKS TO ITS STRONG DYNAMICS AND TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE THE STRONG LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING MOVES NORTH AND CLEARS THE
REGION AROUND SUNDAY...A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP WITH ZONAL WEST TO EAST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SOMEWHERE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA OR NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE AKPEN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS 132 150 155 .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM / AB MAY 08