Gale Warning 411, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 111130
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-120200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 55N 141W WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN AFTERNOON. A STRONG
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY AND TRACK TO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY MONDAY MORNING. A 966 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
MOVE TO NEAR 56N 158W EARLY MON MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS IT HEADS
NORTHWEST.
$$

PKZ351-120200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-120200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 112305
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 968 MB LOW NEAR 54N 160W MOVES TO 58N 159W AND WEAKENS TO 973 MB
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER THEN MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS TUESDAY. A
STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TO OVER
THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-121400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 11 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 121128
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-130200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 970 MB LOW NEAR 56N 160W TO THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. A 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MON
NIGHT AND TUE. A 962 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 49N 155W 
EARLY WED MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-130200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

.TODAY...S TO E WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-130200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM ADT MON MAY 12 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
600 AM ADT SAT MAY 10 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS OUR DOMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE WE
TRANSITION OUR FOCUS FROM TWO VERTICALLY STACKED WEAKENING LOWS TO A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW TODAY. THE FIRST LOW IS A 1000
MB LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS AND THE SECOND IS A MATURE 990
MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF. A DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS FROM THE GULF
LOW NORTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB BUT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
TO 972 MB BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING AS ALL MAJOR MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. GFS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST
3 RUNS REGARDING THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ITS TRACK TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE MADE ONLY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IN
RESPONSE TO THE DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOAN SPOT WITH
INCLEMENT WEATHER IS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE
LETTING UP TODAY AND FINALLY GIVE KODIAK CITY A BREAK. TORRENTIAL
RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST WEEK IN KODIAK CITY WHERE THEY HAVE
TALLIED OVER 8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MONTH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS LOW WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE AREA.

THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL STAY DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS LATE
SUNDAY WHILE THE INTERIOR WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL WILL SEE AT LEAST 45 MPH WINDS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHER AREAS LIKE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN, THE MATANUSKA VALLEY, AND
WEST ANCHORAGE WILL SEE WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR 111 AND 141. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FOR 111 THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY 141 LATER TODAY.

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO
THE INTERIOR. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL
ALONG THE COAST.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
DEFORMATION ZONE STILL THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM BRISTOL BAY TO
THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FOCUS WILL SHIFT FURTHER WEST WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS. RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE OCCLUDED
FRONT...AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY AND
SPREADING AS FAR INLAND AS WESTERN 151 MONDAY. AT THIS POINT...NO
STORM WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW BUT STRONG GALES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS SO
WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO SEE IF
THAT INCREASE WILL BE NECESSARY.

COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEST OF 170W WHICH WILL CONTINUE AS THE
MEAN ANCHOR UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION REMAINS UNCHANGED. COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF 170W HELPING KEEP THE ICE EDGE FROM
RETREATING TOO FAST AND SNOW SHOWERS STILL IN THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 172 180 .
FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH 111.

AB MAY 08